ADC12 may continue to be in the doldrums amid the deepening off-season. Pay attention to the circulation of raw materials and inventory changes [SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy]

6.26 SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 19,700 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,750 yuan/mt, a low of 19,640 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,670 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt or 0.15% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 1,089 lots, and open interest was 7,978 lots, with bears increasing their positions.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on June 25, the SMM ADC12 spot price was at a theoretical premium of 395 yuan/mt over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2511) at 10:15 a.m.

Aluminum Scrap: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 20,530 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market prices remained largely unchanged from the previous day. Amid the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises have seen weak order releases, with purchases mainly driven by immediate needs. Yesterday, the centralized quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap ranged from 15,200-15,700 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive), while shredded aluminum tense scrap was quoted at 15,800-17,300 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive). Regionally, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other places closely followed aluminum price movements, with price adjustments ranging from 0-50 yuan/mt. Jiangxi region showed a clear stance of refusing to budge on prices, with no price adjustments observed this week. In terms of products, baled UBC aluminum scrap has followed the downward trend of aluminum prices since last Thursday, with a cumulative adjustment range of 150-200 yuan/mt. Considering the difficulty in actual shipments, aluminum scrap suppliers have adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards price adjustments amid the highs and fluctuations of aluminum prices.

Overseas Markets: The CIF import price of ADC12 remained at 2,430-2,470 US dollars/mt, with the import spot price hovering around 19,200 yuan/mt, and the immediate import loss still within the range of 700-800 yuan/mt. In Thailand, the local tax-exclusive price of ADC12 was concentrated at 82-83 Thai baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, on June 25, the combined daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 18,618 mt, an increase of 84 mt from the previous trading day.

Summary: On Wednesday, SMM ADC12 prices continued to stabilize within the range of 19,900-20,100 yuan/mt. Suppressed by the traditional off-season, demand-side performance remained weak, and market transactions were sluggish. The lack of growth in terminal orders has constrained the upward movement of ADC12 prices, exacerbating market competition due to the impact of low-priced supplies. However, the cost side remained relatively firm, providing some support to prices. With short-term consumption unlikely to improve and the off-season effects deepening, it is expected that ADC12 prices will remain in the doldrums. Close attention should be paid to changes in raw material circulation and signs of marginal improvement in demand.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

》Click to view SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database

》Subscribe to view SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices